Thursday, March 28, 2024

Indonesia in the South China Sea/the East Sea: Going It Alone

Under President Jokowi, Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea/East Sea disputes has moved from that of an active player in efforts to find a peaceful solution to the broader disputes, to one primarily focused on protecting its own interests around the Natuna Islands while not antagonising China. The shift in the Indonesian position has been driven by an increase in Chinese incursions around the Natunas, Jokowi’s lack of interest in regional diplomacy, as well as his goal of attracting Chinese investment for his signature infrastructure projects. Indonesia’s more unilateral approach leaves the other countries of Southeast Asia more isolated and exposed to Chinese diplomatic pressure than they were under Jokowi’s predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. This reduces the possibilities for collective action among Southeast Asian governments eager to fend off further Chinese pressure, leading to a more acute great power rivalry in the region. Jokowi’s approach to the South China Sea/East Sea and interest in better relations with Beijing could sour, however, if China does not deliver on its investment pledges, becomes overly assertive around the Natuna Islands, or takes an interventionist stance on the protection of ethnic Chinese Indonesians from communal violence.

Keywords: The South China Sea/East Sea, China, Indonesia, Natuna Islands, ASEAN.

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In this Issue

  1. VIETNAM'S FOREIGN POLICY
  2. INTERNATIONAL ISSUES
  3. THE EAST SEA ISSUES
  4. RESEARCH AND EXCHANGE

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