Friday, March 29, 2024

Resolving the South China Sea Disputes: Combining Regional Engagement with Measured Deterrence

The paper looks at the evolution of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea,[1] especially since 2009, when an economic recession and administration change in the US coincided with a spike in territorial disputes in the Western Pacific , evaluating the key sources of rising tensions and risks of armed confrontation, especially in absence of proactive intra-ASEAN and extra-ASEAN mechanisms to rein in China's growing territorial assertiveness. The paper will primarily be from the perspective of the Philippines, one of the claimant states in the South China Sea, which arguably has had the most troubled relationship with China among Southeast Asian states, while inviting growing strategic footprint by the US in the region. The paper looks at the optimal ways to de-escalate tensions through stepped-up engagement, specifically on developing a legally-binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, coordinating legal and diplomatic strategies among Southeast Asian claimant states, and evoking the provisions of the UNCLOS to determine the scope and validity of overlapping territorial claims.

In light of the US’ pivot to Asia, the paper looks at the importance of enhancing the minimum deterrence capabilities of weaker links such as the Philippines, plus the ongoing military modernization and accelerated acquisition schemes to reorient the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) from an internally-oriented security institution into a viable line of defense against external threats. But with the ultimate purpose of dissuading further Chinese encroachment into Philippines' 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone not provoking conflict. Above all, the paper emphasizes the importance of diplomatic subtlety: The necessity for conscious and calibrated refrain from provocative language among Asian leaders, especially Tokyo and Manila, which has provided ammunition to hawkish media outlets across the region, fanning popular nationalism and deepening the influence of hardliner factions in China, who have called for a non-compromising posturing on the disputes.



[1] South China Sea is the dominant term used in English for the sea, and the name in most European languages is equivalent, but it is sometimes called by different names in neighboring countries, often reflecting historical claims to hegemony over the sea. Viet Nam refers to the sea as “The East Sea”.

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